Towards Shock-responsive Social Protection: Estimates from the COVID-19 Microsimulation in Pakistan

This report presents the methodology and results of a microsimulation based on a partial equilibrium modelling framework using nationally representative household-level data for Pakistan. The findings include an estimate of the potential impact of COVID-19 on poverty in the country based on a model that assumes heterogeneity of impact across individuals and households depending on the type and sector of employment. Moreover, the model is used to assess the effectiveness, coverage, and adequacy of the social protection response to COVID-19. The microsimulation results complement a larger Pakistan country case study that documents the way in which social protection programmes, processes, and delivery systems have been used to respond to the COVID-19 crisis.