Social Protection as an Enabler in Scaling up Forecast-based Financing using Impact-based Forecasting

This paper serves as an introductory brief for understanding the potential of social protection (SP) systems to be used as Forecast-based Financing (FbF) mechanisms in Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) countries. FbF helps to facilitate cash-based early actions prior to shocks using trigger models. Recently, there has been interest in evaluating the advantages of using impact-based forecasts for FbF to trigger action, based on an early indication of what the weather will do, rather than relying solely on traditional hydro-meteorological forecasts of what the weather will be (FbF, 2020). This will help to generate early information on the severity of the impacts predicted, which can range from minor to significant, enabling more tailored and appropriate early actions to be initiated.